So we move into the most interesting part of the season. Damian is going to win, no surprises there, but there are surprises elsewhere and everything else is yet to be decided.
Tony led for the first four months, but he’s already been overtaken by Jim as well as Damian. He is the architect of the Series and he understands the reality. A number of us, who got our seven in early, even if we run all the remaining races, are unlikely to add to our total and race by race we’ll slide down the main table. But, such is the charm of the Series, that we still have everything to fight for in the five to come; for Tony it’s his 3/4 battle with Mick.
Who is going to challenge Jim for the podium places? Tom’s fit and getting back to his best, Stuart is well positioned whilst, see the newsletter, there are doubts about Malcolm’s fitness. The smart money, however, is probably on Rob as runner-up.
Other intriguing rivalries to be decided:-
Ray vs. Tony vs. Rob vs. James
Mark vs. Mike vs. Ian vs. Mick vs. Don
Geoff vs. Andy vs. Peter vs. Gareth
Steve vs. Richard
Sally vs. David vs. Ian
Chris vs. Sarah vs. Amanda
Christine vs. Catriona vs. John
Owen vs. Steffi vs. Sally
Julie vs.
Roy
vs. Trevor vs. Kasey vs. Nina vs. Carla vs. Rod
Tom vs. Sarah
Ladies
The top ladies seem to have a short shelf-life. Diane no longer races. Kate is gone. Sally, after years of injury, is having a season that sometimes hints at her past performances. Clare is long-time injured. Jane, winner in 2006 and 2007, hasn’t raced and Vicky, last year’s winner, needs to run all five remaining races just to complete the Series.
Kate and Nicky share a robust self-confidence which means that even their bad days are good, well I might exclude Nicky’s 5ks from that. Tradition has it that Kate sets the early pace, leads through the summer but gets swallowed-up in the autumn. That may happen again but race by race she’s raised the bar for any challenger. Angela and Penny have also scored steadily through the first 14 races. Penny has run at this level ever since her
China
sojourn but this summer represents a new high for Angie. It is unlikely, however, that either can displace Kate or Nicky.
Sarah’s winter form promoted her as a potential challenger but post-London syndrome has blighted her summer. However, after a poor Warford run she ran a PB at Birchwood so, hopefully, she can pick-up this autumn where she was last year.
The title is still Sue’s to win but she probably needs five good races to take it.
Group 3/4
At the top it is the Mick and Tony story; the battle of the over 60s. This could be decided not over 7 races but whose eighth or ninth race score is the better. Tony selected the races but all the five to come are on the road and, for me, they tip the balance in Mick’s favour.
Behind them Don has not only done every race to date but his running is at an all-time high. Ian, only able to do weekend races now he’s working in
Leeds
, has scored two wins but are there enough hills in the five to come for him to mount a challenge? Andy is now close to his potential but did he lose too much ground in the early races?
Richard has embraced the spirit of the Series but Peter might be the newcomer who makes the biggest impact. David has had a good season but as with Neil, work gets in the way. It is very tight between Steve Smith, Gareth and Geoff but they’ve pulled ahead of Steve Russell, who’ll collect his first T-shirt for a number of years.
One of the charming idiosyncrasies of the Series is that someone can beat you every time you run against them but you end-up above them in the table. I did that to Nicky last year but this year justice looks likely to be done, however, I’m hoping for a similar undeserved positioning against Sarah and perhaps also Chris. SS veterans will tell you a poor run in spring often brings more points than a PB in the autumn.
Owen and Matt look likely to contest the relegation places.
Group 5/6
Angela looked to be emerging as favourite but then lost-out to both Penny and Catriona at Great Warford. John, as always, is up there but he probably needed 50 points at Warford if he was going to take the title. Catriona has the speed but has she the strength? Penny, like Angie, has points in the bag.
Christine’s challenge was paused by injury but the races to come look to her liking. Amanda has the ability, but has she the confidence, to go out and win the last five races? Sally would almost certainly have won last year but for her pregnancy, she too could win all five, but has she the mileage in her legs to run them all as well as she did Meerbrook?
Carla and Steffi have moved through the group as the Series has progressed pushing aside Rod and
Roy
but both stalwarts are in their best shape of the year. It looks like injury is going to prevent Peter defending his over 65 crown but in contrast Simon looks like celebrating his first Series T-shirt as the premier runner in the category.
Julie and Soraya are challenging Trevor and Sarah for Group 6 leadership, it is very tight but it looks more likely that it is going to be between Tom and Kasey.
Age/Sex
This, unsurprisingly, is the closest table and the most difficult to predict. Tony set the early pace in the main table but has, inevitably, been overhauled as the Group 1 runners completed their 7 races. He has also set the pace in age/sex but, here, catching him is going to prove difficult, perhaps impossible.
We ran last year’s results through the system as a test and Tom would have won. Tom has, however, missed a critical part of the season through injury and Malcolm, who would have been his closest challenger last year, is now injured. Both remain possible winners with Tom slightly better placed. Rob has significantly improved this year and, despite being an M45, is running PBs as well as breaking club records. So even without Tom and Malcolm’s injuries this may well have been Rob’s year, but first he has to catch Tony.
Damian carries a big handicap but is running better than ever. Mick, Ray, Stuart, Jim, Andy and Geoff are also in the mix. From the ladies Nicky and Kate lead the challenge.
Perhaps by Sutton things will be clearer.
Laterne Rouge
Charlotte
set a club record at score at Bowdon but is not in the hunt. Nina has carried the lantern four times as has Sarah but you need a big man for a big job and Martin fits the bill.
Ian